What Peak?

If you dislike oil, do read this, an op-ed from Michael Lynch, an energy consultant. It tries to pop the theory of peak oil, at least in the short term.

But I'm not really writing about peak oil. Whether or not Mr. Lynch's logic is correct, the point of the idea of peak oil is that at some point in the future, oil will run out. Our entire energy system has to be prepared before this happens, or, especially if it happens during a period of exponential growth, we'll be screwed economically; it will bring everything down. This is going to happen one day. It may not be today, or tomorrow, or ten or even fifty years, but it is inevitably going to happen if humans are still around and we don't have any other way to power our machines. Oil is finite, and we are using more and more and more of it. Yes, putting significant economic resources into fuel programs which will create fuel still more expensive than oil makes little sense, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be working towards it gradually.

But in any case, I'm not writing about peak oil, I'm writing about this: this is pretty good news, and I, reading the article, felt bad about it.

This is good news! Oil powers the world's economy. Unless you are looking forward to dying of starvation or exposure or in a resource war or of any number of effects of the collapse of our civilization (and yes, there are some of you out there I know) this is good news. And yet, there is the feeling that it pushes off the golden age, a time when energy comes entirely renewable and people smile at each other on the street.

For sure, the effects of oil on the emission of CO2 can't be ignored, and this is probably why many people would be predisposed to disagree vehemently with this article.

I can't say that it's true, either, but I sure can't say that it isn't. (Brazil has recently found a bonanza of oil off of its coast.) And that's sort of the point. My feelings on the issue are entirely irrelevant. How many people, though, read the article and said, "fool!" or "well it's about time somebody made some sense," not because this is the definitive word, but because there is none. Experts disagree on this, as they do on everything.

This, of course, is a rather inflammatory issue, or at least a litmus test, but I feel that for most questions of opinion the majority of folks would react in a similar manner. There's no real consideration for the merits of the argument, or that one's previous position might not be solid. Who's to say that anybody's right, anyway?